Disruptions persist in maritime transport, challenging its resilience
Infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, significantly impacts the attainment of all SDGsSustainable Development Goal, influencing 92 per cent of the 169 individual targets -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Transport infrastructure and services facilitate trade, support global supply chains, propel growth, and promote social progress. While multimodality is essential for door-to-door delivery of goods, maritime transport dominantes, accounting for over 80 per cent of world merchandise trade -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-1. The Bridgetown Covenant emphasized the strategic importance of transport for sustainable economic growth, regional integration, and developing countries’ participation in the global economy. It highlighted the need for resilient transport systems that can withstand shocks, recover and adapt to change, thereby fostering a more inclusive world and shared prosperity. Additionally, the Covenant stressed the need to enhance the sustainability and resilienceThe ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. of transport infrastructure and services, along with promoting the conservation and sustainable use of oceans and their resources -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Table of contents
Despite major challenges stemming from global crises, shipping continues to show resilience.
In 2022, international seaborne trade volumes contracted by 0.4 per cent, from 12 072 million tons in 2021 to 12 027 million tons -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Factors influencing this weak growth included lower global economic growth, high inflation affecting consumer spending, the war in Ukraine, and earlier strict COVID-19COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 discovered in December 2019. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19 -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. containment measures in China -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Despite a turbulent global landscape, the maritime industry showed resilience. The war in Ukraine altered shipping patterns since early 2022 and increased travel distances for certain commodities, with ton-miles growth exceeding growth in tons in 2022, 2023 and in the projections for 2024. Distance travelled by sea for refined oil products, crude oil and grain reached record highs -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
In 2022, oil and gas trade volumes grew by 6 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively, as pandemicCommonly described by the WHO as ‘the worldwide spread of a new disease’, no strict definition is provided. In 2009, they set out the basic requirements for a pandemic: • New virus emerges in humans
• Minimal or no population immunity
• Causes serious illness; high morbidity/mortality
• Spreads easily from person to person
• Global outbreak of disease.
The US Centre for Disease Control uses a similar approach, but with a reduced set of criteria. It is very difficult to gauge whether the spread of a disease should be termed an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic. In other words, when to declare a pandemic isn’t a black and white decision -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. restrictions eased. Maritime trade was projected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2023 and at an average annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent from 2024 to 2028 -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. These rates are below the historical average growth rate of 3 per cent over the past 30 years (figure 1).
Figure 1. Seaborne trade still growing, despite headwindsSource: UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- for 1970–2021 and -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- thereafter.
Note: 2023 and 2024 are forecasts. Data with improved methodology and with data for 2022 and 2023 will be finalized during 2024.
Containerized trade, crucial for transporting electronics, food and medical devices, is rebounding. After a 3.7 per cent drop in 2022, UNCTAD forecasts a modest recovery with growth of 1.2 per cent in 2023 and between 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent annually from 2024 to 2028, still below historic growth rates. In 2022, regional and route differences were notable: a 6.5 per cent decline in containerized trade between East-Asia (and more specifically China) and the United States of America, a 4.9 per cent decline on the Asia-Europe route but increases in intraregional routes (particularly intra-Asian) and other routes involving developing economies -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Despite these variations, main East-West routes continue to dominate global containerized flows. Figure 2 shows the sustained dynamism of container shipping in Asian ports as indicated by trends container port throughput.
Figure 2. Asian ports are increasingly and consistently dominant in the number of containers handledSource: UNCTADstat -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
International shipping infrastructure and maritime trade upended by a crisis in the Red Sea
Disruption persisted in maritime transport and logistics in 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. The ongoing war in Gaza and the attacks on ships entering the Gulf of Aden since November 2023 have challenged shipping and trade in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, with disruptions reflected by trade and shipping data. Crossings through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal by number and tonnage of vessels dropped significantly while transits via the Panama Canal also dropped due to climate change-induced reduction in water levels. These disruptions underscore the need for long-term resilience building in maritime transport.
The Suez Canal is crucial for global trade, facilitating the delivery of wide-ranging commodities with container trade flows comprising the largest share. It enables the passage of energy, commodities, consumer goods and components across routes involving Asia, Europe, the Mediterranean and the East Coast of the United States of America. In 2023, around 26 000 vessels transited Suez, carrying an estimated 10 per cent of global maritime trade volume and 22 per cent of containerized trade flows (figure 3).
Figure 3. A tenth of global maritime trade transits the Suez CanalSource: -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
Re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope entails additional costs and new challenges
Major players in the shipping industry have suspended Suez transits and are now using alternative routes, particularly the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, daily transits via the Suez Canal have significantly declined since the attacks began. UNCTAD estimates that the number of transits via the Suez Canal decreased by 42 per cent by January 2024 compared to its peak (figure 4).
Figure 4. Transits almost cut in half in the Suez and Panama CanalsSource: UNCTAD calculations based on data from -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
Total number of transits through the Panama Canal also slumped by 49 per cent compared to its peak. The disruptions in the Suez Canal occurred mainly over the December 2023 and January 2024 period, while transits through the Panama Canal have been decreasing for the past two years.
By March 2024, ship tonnage entering the Gulf of Aden declined by 73 per cent compared with mid-December 2023. Container ships’ tonnage fell by 93 per cent reflecting the diversion of 666 container ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Meanwhile, vessel tonnage via the Cape increased by 64 per cent over the first half of December 2023 -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Diverting ships around Africa generates extra miles and longer transit times (figure 5), resulting in additional operational costs (e.g. fuel, crew, insurance), risks (e.g. piracy off the Horn of Africa), legal claims for delayed vessels, disrupted shipments, damaged ships and spoiled cargo. Longer transit times resulting in off-schedule deliveries negatively affect just-in-time delivery systems and necessitate higher inventories. With more ship carrying capacity being held up at sea, global shipping demand is estimated to increase by around 3 per cent, requiring more ships and port handling capacity -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. The detour around Africa presents operational challenges for African ports that are ill-prepared to handle unexpected increases in vessel calls and demand for bunkering services.
Figure 5. Recent disruptions in the Black Sea, Red Sea and Panama Canal accelerate an increase in shipping distancesSource: -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- based on data from Clarksons Reseach -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
Note: Distances for 2024 are forecasts.
Freight rates and prices increase in tandem with the extra operational costs and mileage
Operational shifts, extra mileage, and delays are driving up freight rates and the prices of goods. UNCTAD analysis has shown that about half of the increase in food prices observed in 2022 was caused by higher transport costs associated with increased shipping distances resulting from the Black Sea disruption.
The Red Sea crisis has led the average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai to more than double since early December (122 per cent), growing more than threefold to Europe (256 per cent), and even above average (162 per cent) to the West Coast of the United States of America. If sustained, high shipping costs can amplify inflation as was the case during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2021-2022 global logistics crunch. By March 2024, container freight rates eased slightly but remained elevated compared to the pre-disruption levels (figure 6).
Figure 6. Container freight rates increased again in the beginning of 2024Source: -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
Note: TEUTwenty-foot Equivalent Unit: twenty-foot equivalent unit; FEU: forty-foot equivalent unit. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index reflects the price level for exports by container from Shanghai, per destination. Ports of destination for the spot prices for United States East Coast are New York, Savannah, Norfolk and Charleston; for United States West Coast they are Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland; for the Mediterranean Sea they are Barcelona, Valencia, Genoa and Naples; and for Europe they are Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Felixstowe and Le Havre. The comprehensive index is a weighted average the prices for routes scaled so that the value on 16th October 2009 is set to 1000 -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
The Red Sea disruption threatens environmental goals
GHGGreenhouse gas (GHG) is an atmospheric gas that lets the solar radiation reach the Earth’s surface, but absorbs infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and thereby leads to the heating of the surface of the planet. The main GHGs the concentrations of which are rising are CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases, and ozone in the lower atmosphere. -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- are growing as ships travel longer distances and at greater speed to compensate for the detour (figure 7). It has been estimated that these factors could result in just over 70 per cent rise in GHG emissions for a round trip on the Asia-Northern Europe route -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Figure 7. Spiking vessel sailing speed by 7 per cent at the start of the Red Sea crisis and easing in early 2024Source: -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- based on data from -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
Note: Container ships of 13 500 TEU and above.
The Red Sea crisis underscores the exposure and the vulnerability of global maritime transport infrastructure to disruptions and calls for a scaling up of collective efforts to promote sustainable and resilience-building solutions.
Adapting ports and other key transport infrastructure to the impacts of climate change
Ports are critical for global trade but confront various climate risks, from heat waves to heavy precipitation, flash floods, extreme winds and waves (e.g., long waves and associated swell) that endanger the operation of cranes and can make access to ports more hazardous -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Mean sea-level rise and associated extreme sea-levels are especially concerning -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- with potential devastating impacts on port infrastructure and operations -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Port defenses are designed to withstand extreme sea levels (ESLs) with a certain return period, commonly the 1-in-100 years ESL (ESL100) estimated at the time of design or construction. However, ESLs of a magnitude so far expected to occur once a century, will occur much more often under climate change, significantly increasing the flood hazard for global ports, including some of the top 100 container ports (figure 8, see also -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-). Ports in developing regions, notably in SIDSSmall island developing states (SIDS) were recognized as a distinct group of developing countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. More information on UNCTAD official page. lack adaptive capacity and are particularly vulnerable -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. These regions rely on critical coastal transport infrastructure as lifelines for trade, food and energy security, tourism, and disaster risk response and recovery -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Effective adaptation action is particularly urgent as these assets are projected to be at high and increasing risk of coastal flooding, from as early as the 2030s -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Figure 8. Exposure of ports to extreme sea levels will become increasingly common if the climate continues to heat upSource: UNCTAD. Data collation and treatment, I. Monioudi, University of the Aegean. ESLs100 projections for global coastline from -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-; see also -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Notes: Global warming scenarios SWL (Specific Warming Level) are presented in 0C above pre-industrial times. The Tr (years) - return period scale shows how frequent the baseline (mean of the 1980–2014 period) 1-in-100 years extreme sea level, ESL100, is projected to become for each port. Lower values indicate that the baseline ESL100 is projected to occur much more frequently. Ports displayed are the 100 biggest ports in terms of container port throughput in 2021 -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. The ports are ordered according to region and exposure in the SWL 1.50C scenario.
World is not on track to reduce vulnerabilities and risks highlights the continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions, and their dire implications, including extreme heatwaves, droughts, and flooding -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. These events not only cause significant damage, but also disrupt global supply chains, leading to extensive economic costs -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- The projected significant increase in the total value of assets exposed to episodic coastal flooding by 2100 accentuates the urgency for infrastructure investment and climate adaptation -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-
Failure to implement adaptation measures could severely jeopardize sustainable development especially in vulnerable nations -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- albeit knowledge gaps persist regarding individual coastal transport facilities’ vulnerabilities and exposure, hampering effective prevention -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Scaling up Early Warning Systems -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-, as discussed in World is not on track to reduce vulnerabilities and risks, will be critical for increased preparedness and mitigation of impacts. Flexible and adaptive infrastructure and operations as well as engineered redundancy are crucial to improve resilience -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-, among other technologies to minimize and address loss and damage in coastal zones -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. While progress has been made in technical guidance -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-, standards -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- and methodologies -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- to facilitate risk assessment in line with technical guidance and adaptation, more needs to be done -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. Climate-risk assessment -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- is already a legal requirement for infrastructure projects in the EUEuropean Union and their projects in third countries -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
Urgent steps are required to bolster affordable climate adaptation finance -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—- for developing economies, with the World Bank estimating substantial net benefits from investing in resilient infrastructure in developing economies, amounting up to $4.2 trillion, a $4 return for each dollar invested in resilience -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-. However, the estimated adaptation costs in developing economies are 10-18 times greater than current public adaptation finance flows -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-, emphasizing the need for collaborative effort by policymakers and development partners. According to -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-, in 2022, total climate finance provided and mobilized for developing economies amounted to $115.9 billion, for the first time exceeding the annual $100 billion goal. However, of this total, only US$ 32.4 billion, (28%) was for adaptation, and only a fraction of this amount will have been targeting climate change adaptation for ports and other critical coastal infrastructure.
Notes
- For more analysis of structural and cyclical changes affecting seaborne trade, ports and shipping see the annual UNCTAD flagship report Review of Maritime Transport -—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—--—
– ‒
- –
—-.
References
Donec tincidunt vel mauris a dignissim. Curabitur sodales nunc id vestibulum tempor. Nunc tortor orci, sodales nec eros eget.
Donec tincidunt vel mauris a dignissim. Curabitur sodales nunc id vestibulum tempor. Nunc tortor orci, sodales nec eros eget.
Donec tincidunt vel mauris a dignissim. Curabitur sodales nunc id vestibulum tempor. Nunc tortor orci, sodales nec eros eget.
Donec tincidunt vel mauris a dignissim. Curabitur sodales nunc id vestibulum tempor. Nunc tortor orci, sodales nec eros eget.
Donec tincidunt vel mauris a dignissim. Curabitur sodales nunc id vestibulum tempor. Nunc tortor orci, sodales nec eros eget.