Resilient and sustainable transport is a pre-condition for an inclusive world of shared prosperity

Infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, directly and indirectly influences the attainment of all the SDGsSustainable Development Goal, including 92 per cent of the 169 individual targets -—
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—-. Transport infrastructure and services enable trade, support global supply chains, propel growth, and promote social progress. While multimodality is key to door-to-door delivery of goods, maritime transport is the dominant mode, accounting for over 80 per cent of world merchandise trade -—
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—-. The Bridgetown Covenant emphasized the strategic importance of transport for sustainable economic growth and development, regional integration, and for developing countries’ participation in the global economy. Resilient transport systems that can withstand shocks, recover and resume operations while adapting to change are crucial for a more inclusive world and shared prosperity. The Covenant stressed the need to enhance the sustainability and resilienceThe ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management -—
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—-. of transport infrastructure and services and promote the conservation and sustainable use of oceans and their resources -—
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Maritime transport and trade defied the COVID-19 pandemic and continue to show resilience

Underpinned by business continuity in transport and logistics and the sector’s prompt response to the challenges arising from the disruption, maritime trade volumes fell less dramatically than expected in 2020 before recovering swiftly in 2021. Maritime trade bounced back by 3.2 per cent in 2021, after a 3.8 per cent decrease in 2020. Globally, loaded cargo recovered to 11 billion tons in 2021 (Figure 1) with developing countries, particularly the Asian region, acting as the main global maritime cargo handling centre. Of all international seaborne trade, 58 per cent were loaded or discharged in developing economies, and 43 per cent in developing economies in Asia (calculations based on UNCTADstat -—
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—-).

Containerized trade and dry bulk commodity trades have been more resilient as compared with tanker trade. There was also a revival in trade adjusted for distance travelled. Maritime trade in ton-miles fell by 1.4 per cent in 2020 but in 2021 increased by 3.3 per cent taking the total to an estimated 59 trillion (Figure 2). Container port traffic also declined in 2020 and rebounded in 2021 with the top leading world container ports being concentrated in Asia, in particular China -—
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Port calls changed amid a global supply chain crisis that heightened in 2021

A large upswing in global demand matched with acute supply-side capacity shortages culminated in an unprecedented logjam in global logistics with port congestion reaching historical records. The COVID-19COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 discovered in December 2019. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19 -—
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—-. pandemicCommonly described by the WHO as ‘the worldwide spread of a new disease’, no strict definition is provided. In 2009, they set out the basic requirements for a pandemic: • New virus emerges in humans
• Minimal or no population immunity
• Causes serious illness; high morbidity/mortality
• Spreads easily from person to person
• Global outbreak of disease.
The US Centre for Disease Control uses a similar approach, but with a reduced set of criteria. It is very difficult to gauge whether the spread of a disease should be termed an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic. In other words, when to declare a pandemic isn’t a black and white decision -—
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—-. brought with it logistical problems, especially for container traffic, which persisted in 2022. In terms of time in port, the median for container ships increased by 12 per cent in 2021, from 0.71 to 0.80 days and stayed at this level in 2022 -—
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—-. Though the total number of port calls rebounded in 2021 (Figure 3), supported by the recovery in seaborne trade volume, calls by container ships were hindered by heavy port congestion. The impacts cascaded to developing regions. Shipping lines redeployed ships to the busier and more profitable routes of the United States of America and China; other countries suffered even more. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, for example, lost more than 10 per cent of their direct liner shipping connections from the third quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2022 -—
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—-. In 2022, the war in Ukraine brought with it new uncertainty and complexity for shipping logistics -—
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In addition, many developing countries were faced with late arrival of vessels and shortage of containers. Meanwhile, container freight rates jumped to record levels and by mid-2021, peaked at four times their pre-pandemic levels (Figure 4). Spot container freight rates surged on many routes, including those to developing regions. For example, in 2019 on the Shanghai, China to South America (Santos) route the rates per TEUTwenty-foot Equivalent Unit were around US$2 000 but by December 2020 were US$6 543, and by December 2021 had reached US$10 196. Over the same period, between December 2020 and December 2021, rates per TEU on the Shanghai to South Africa (Durban) route increased from US$2 521 to US$6 450 and on the Shanghai to West Africa (Lagos) route increased from US$2 521 to US$7 452. By the spring of 2023, as the logjam and port congestion eased and global demand moderated, freight rates declined and returned to pre-pandemic levels. In June 2023, a comprehensive index of costs of shipping from Shanghai was down to only 20 per cent of the peak in January 2022 -—
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The war in Ukraine disrupted food and energy supplies and put maritime transport and trade under the spotlight

The war in Ukraine stopped grain shipments through Black Sea ports. Food prices soared together with dry bulk freight rates (see also Trade and Food Security). An UNCTAD simulation projects that higher grain prices and dry bulk freight rates can contribute to a 1.2 per cent increase in consumer food prices (Figure 5). The price increases will be slightly higher in middle-income economies, whose food imports depend more on dry bulk shipping. Low-income economies have limited capacity in primary food processing and import more processed food which arrives in containers. Trade patterns are also shifting as buyers seek substitute suppliers, who are usually more distant, adding to ton-miles.

Energy transition in maritime transport as a climate risk mitigating strategy and a resilience building lever

The previous decade saw a steady reduction in carbon intensityCarbon intensity is the amount of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released per unit of another variable such as gross domestic product (GDP), output energy use or transport -—
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—-. measured in grams of CO₂Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a colourless, odourless and non-poisonous gas formed by combustion of carbon and in the respiration of living organisms -—
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—-. emitted per ton-mile -—
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—-. However, emissions from the world fleet, i.e., the product of carbon intensity and shipping volume, increased by 4.7 per cent between 2020 and 2021, reflecting the swift recovery in maritime transport activity in 2021. Most of the increases came from container ships, dry bulk and general cargo vessels (Figure 6). Maritime transport is currently at a turning point given the global momentum arising from the Paris Climate AgreementThe Paris Agreement is an agreement within the UNFCCC aiming is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further, to 1.5°C. It aims to strengthen countries’ ability to deal with the impacts of climate change. To reach these ambitious goals, appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity building framework are intended to support developing countries, in line with their national objectives -—
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—-.. The sector is committed to curbing its greenhouse gas emissions and taking up lower carbon alternative fuels. While energy efficiency gains from technical and operational measures are important, the use of non-fossil fuels or technologies that capture and store carbon emitted by shipping is key for the sector’s decarbonization. Alternative fuels currently cost two to five times as much as conventional fossil fuels and are not yet available at scale and commercially viable. To expand the use of alternative fuels, ships need to invest in vessels running on alternative fuels and ports need to support this transition by providing low-emission energy supply infrastructure and alternative fuel bunkering facilities -—
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Maritime transport resilience is a requirement for supply chains as well as the national economies -—
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—-. Ensuring the integrity and the well-functioning of maritime transportation is critical for all economies, developed and developing alike, in particular SIDSSmall island developing states (SIDS) were recognized as a distinct group of developing countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. More information on UNCTAD official page. and LLDCsLandlocked developing country. These vulnerable economies depend heavily on maritime transport networks for their livelihood and access to the global marketplace. Building the capability of countries to anticipate, prepare for, respond and recover from significant multi-hazard threats affecting their maritime transport systems requires as a matter of priority investing in risk management, emergency response and preparedness -—
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Since 2020, UNCTAD’s Building Port Resilience Against Pandemic component of the TrainForTrade programme has been deployed supporting a total of 4 573 port managers and operators across 163 countries in English, French and Spanish. It covers four main areas: (1) crisis protocol and communication strategies, (2) staff management and well-being, (3) technology preparedness and, (4) cargo flow continuity -—
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Adapting ports and other key transport infrastructure to the impacts of climate change

Ports are critical for global trade but are at the forefront of climate change. Many climatic hazards can affect ports, including heat waves, which can be dangerous for human health and significantly increase energy needs and costs; heavy precipitation, giving rise to flash floods; extreme winds and waves (e.g., long waves and associated swell) that endanger the operation of cranes and berthing operations; or changes in wave direction that can make access to ports more hazardous -—
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—-. Mean sea-level rise and associated extreme sea-levels pose a particularly important threat of coastal flooding -—
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—-, which is growing with potentially devastating impacts on port infrastructure and operations, in particular in developing regions, with low adaptive capacity, such as in SIDS -—
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—-. Critical coastal transport infrastructure in these countries, notably ports and airports, are lifelines for external trade, food and energy security, as well as tourism, and in the context of disaster risk reduction -—
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—-. However, these assets are projected to be at high and increasing risk of coastal flooding, from as early as in the 2030s, unless effective adaptation action is taken -—
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Resilience at risk discusses the continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions are not cut, the risks of extreme heatwaves, droughts, and flooding will grow rapidly with potentially devastating consequences -—
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—-. Climate-related extreme events and disasters can result in significant damage, as well as disruption and delay across supply-chains, giving rise to extensive economic costs -—
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—- and underlining the critical need for infrastructure investment and climate adaptation. Recent projections suggest that by 2100, the total value of assets exposed to episodic coastal flooding could increase significantly -—
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—-. See Resilience at risk.

Without timely planning and implementation of appropriate adaptation measures, the projected impacts on critical transport infrastructure may have broad economic and trade-related repercussions and could severely compromise the sustainable development prospects of the most vulnerable nations -—
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—-. However, knowledge gaps remain about vulnerabilities and the exposure individual coastal transport facilities face -—
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To increase levels of preparedness and help mitigate impacts, there is also an important need to upscale support for Early Warning Systems, as discussed in Resilience at risk -—
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—-. Flexible and adaptive infrastructure, systems and operations, and engineered redundancy to improve resilience are needed -—
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—-, as are other technologies to avert, minimize and address loss and damage in coastal zones -—
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—-. While progress has been made in technical guidance -—
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—-, standards -—
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—- and methodologies -—
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—-, including in a number of SIDS, more needs to be done -—
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There is an increasingly urgent need to step up affordable climate adaptation finance, including in the form of grants -—
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—- for developing economies. Investing in climate resilience makes good economic sense: The World Bank estimates suggest that overall net benefits of investing in resilient infrastructure in developing countries could amount to US$4.2 trillion, a US$4 return for each dollar invested in resilience -—
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References

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