Resilience at risk

Human well-being is closely connected to the air, water, land, and ecosystems as foundations for life. Achieving the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement depends on safeguarding these resources. Yet, we have seen a trail of greenhouse gas emissions causing the Earth’s climate to change at a frightening pace, compromising the progress achieved in the field of development and the opportunities for future generations to live in an environmentally safe and sustainable world -—
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We need to change course. If the trajectory towards climate change, biodiversityBiodiversity refers to the diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems -—
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—-. loss, pollution and the degradation of ecosystems continues, progress on the SDGsSustainable Development Goal could unravel, exacerbating hunger, poverty, conflict, disasters, and health emergencies. The COVID-19COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 discovered in December 2019. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19 -—
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—-. pandemicCommonly described by the WHO as ‘the worldwide spread of a new disease’, no strict definition is provided. In 2009, they set out the basic requirements for a pandemic: • New virus emerges in humans
• Minimal or no population immunity
• Causes serious illness; high morbidity/mortality
• Spreads easily from person to person
• Global outbreak of disease.
The US Centre for Disease Control uses a similar approach, but with a reduced set of criteria. It is very difficult to gauge whether the spread of a disease should be termed an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic. In other words, when to declare a pandemic isn’t a black and white decision -—
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—-. combined with other crises showed how vulnerable socio-economic progress is in the face of shocks -—
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—-. Developing countries with lower capacity for natural resource management and disaster risk reduction, lack of regulations, technology and financing are particularly vulnerable to shocks.

Another record-breaking year with emissions

The year 2022 took a heavy toll on the environment. Glaciers in the European Alps showed indications of record-shattering melt. The Greenland ice sheet lost mass for the 26th consecutive year. In 2021, the main greenhouse gases, carbon dioxideCarbon dioxide (CO₂) is a colourless, odourless and non-poisonous gas formed by combustion of carbon and in the respiration of living organisms -—
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—-., methane, and nitrous oxide, all reached new record highs. The concentration of methane, a gas 30 times stronger than carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming, increased more than ever before in the 40 years of measurement history -—
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In 2022, the global mean temperature was estimated at 1.15 °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average -—
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—-. We are getting close to the limits set by the 2015 Paris Climate AgreementThe Paris Agreement is an agreement within the UNFCCC aiming is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further, to 1.5°C. It aims to strengthen countries’ ability to deal with the impacts of climate change. To reach these ambitious goals, appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity building framework are intended to support developing countries, in line with their national objectives -—
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—-. to keep the increase below 2 °C from pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to remain below 1.5 °C -—
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—-. UNEPUnited Nations Environment Programme -—
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—- warns that only an urgent system-wide transformation can deliver a cut of 45 per cent in emissions by 2030 to limit global warming to below 1.5 °C.

But greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase, after the temporary decline of 3.6 per cent in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 1). In 2021, total emissions bounced back by 4.2 per cent reaching 52.6 GtGigaton CO₂eCarbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) is a measure used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential. It represents the quantity of carbon dioxide that has equal global warming potential as the given quantity of a greenhouse gas -—
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—-., 0.5 per cent more than before the pandemic in 2019. The first figures for 2022 show that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.0 per cent to 41.5 Gt CO₂e, with a 0.9 per cent increase in energy-related CO₂Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a colourless, odourless and non-poisonous gas formed by combustion of carbon and in the respiration of living organisms -—
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—-. emissions and 1.8 per cent increase for methane -—
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—-. These emissions cover nearly 80 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions.

World’s waistline needs trimming for a low carbon path

Africa accounts for only 3–4 per cent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy and industrial sources, with African countries typically emitting around 22 kg/km² (median). According to the World Risk Index -—
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—-, it is the continent with the highest overall vulnerability with 13 of the 15 most vulnerable countries in the world. Its agriculture is heavily affected by changes in rainfall and temperatures, and it accounts for a large share of GDPGross domestic product (GDP) is an aggregate measure of production, income and expenditure of an economy. As a production measure, it represents the gross value added, i.e., the output net of intermediate consumption, achieved by all resident units engaged in production, plus any taxes less subsidies on products not included in the value of output. As an income measure, it represents the sum of primary incomes (gross wages and entrepreneurial income) distributed by resident producers, plus taxes less subsidies on production and imports. As an expenditure measure, it depicts the sum of expenditure on final consumption, gross capital formation (i.e., investment, changes in inventories, and acquisitions less disposals of valuables) and exports after deduction of imports -—
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—-. and employment.

In Latin America, countries’ emissions were typically at around 200 kg/km² with the average exceeding 900 kg/km² due to some countries with higher emissions compared to their smaller geographic size. Emissions exceeding 400 kg/km², and in 20 per cent of cases even 2 000 kg/km², were common for countries located in a band that ranges from the United States of America to Western, Southern and Eastern Europe and the Near East to Southern, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. Within that band, particularly high emissions per kmkilometre² were recorded in the Benelux countries and in Eastern Asia. In 2021, 44 per cent of global CO₂ emissions were produced in East and South-East Asia. Farther to the North, in Canada, Northern Europe but also in Central America and Central Asia, emissionEmission is the discharge of pollutants into the atmosphere from stationary sources such as smokestacks, other vents, surface areas of commercial or industrial facilities and mobile sources, for example, motor vehicles, locomotives and aircraft -—
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—-. levels were lower, ranging between 70 and 400 kg/km².

High energy prices in 2022 increased vulnerabilities

In 2022, fuel prices increased, largely affected by the war in Ukraine and the related bans on gas and oil imports. In August 2022, fuel prices were nearly three times higher than in August 2019, and natural gas was almost nine times more expensive (Figure 2). Households and businesses struggled due to the high price volatility, and it also set back progress towards universal access to energy as millions of people no longer afforded to use electricity -—
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—-. The high fossil fuel prices also increased food prices and led to disruptions in supply chains (see Trade, food security and agriculture). This turmoil also contributed to growth in renewables (see Transforming to a sustainable economy?). By early 2023, the prices of fuels and natural gas had returned to their mid-2021 levels.

LDCs and SIDS most affected by disasters

Greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and other sources are at the origin of the growing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. According to UNDRRUnited Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction -—
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—-, human actions are creating greater, more dangerous, and systemic risks, pushing societies and the planet towards their limits. The number of disasters is projected to increase from around 400 in 2015 to about 560 per year by 2030 -—
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—-. According to -—
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—-, 50 per cent of disasters in the past 50 years were associated with weather, climate and water extremes.

Disasters impact human lives, from the loss of life to injuries, economic losses and forcing people to flee their homes -—
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—-. Globally, on average 2 113 people per 100 000 were affected by disasters in 2012–2021, up by 75 per cent from 2005 to 2015 -—
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—-.¹ The poor are more affected, as more than one-third of the world’s poor live in multi-hazard zones, and low-income countries account for more than 70 per cent of the world’s disasters -—
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—-. LDCsLeast developed country, LLDCsLandlocked developing country and SIDSSmall island developing states (SIDS) were recognized as a distinct group of developing countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. More information on UNCTAD official page. bear the brunt of disaster impacts (Figure 3). In LLDCs, average mortality due to disasters was more than twice as high as the global average and in SIDS 3.2 higher. For LDCs, the mortality rate was over 40 per cent higher.

From 2015 to 2021, more than one million critical infrastructure units and facilities, including schools and hospitals, were partially or fully destroyed due to disasters globally -—
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—-. In the same period, among reporting LDCs, more than 300 000 critical infrastructure units were destroyed, in LLDCs 290 000, and in SIDS 3 600. Destruction of infrastructure, agricultural land, and productive assets results in loss of income and jobs. It is especially devastating for countries affected by remoteness, like SIDS and LLDCs. UNCTAD ‘s Remoteness Index -—
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—- shows that geographically remote countries rely on digital and physical infrastructure investment to ensure connectivity. Remoteness increases the costs of connecting to global value chains, and disasters make it even more challenging to maintain connectivity.

With rising temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns, the number and duration of droughts has also increased by 29 per cent since 2000, as compared to the previous two decades -—
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—-. An estimated 55 million people globally are affected by droughts every year, and risk displacing an estimated 700 million people globally by 2030. Droughts also exacerbate water scarcity, affecting 40 per cent of the world’s population -—
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—-. In 2022, 2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water services (SDG 6.1.1) -—
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—-. According to UNCTAD’s Inclusive Growth Index -—
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—-, it is among the most serious inclusiveness challenges in Africa. Half of the population lacks access to safely managed water. Inclusive growth cannot be achieved without efforts to strengthen resilienceThe ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management -—
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—-. and ensure sustainable and safe water systems.

Coastal flooding is also an increasing concern. According to some estimates, the total value of assets exposed to episodic coastal flooding could increase to 12–20 per cent of the global GDP by 2100, if no adaptation measures are taken -—
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—-; global flood damages due to sea-level rise (and related extreme events) might amount to up to US$27 trillion per year – about 2.8 per cent of global GDP in 2100 -—
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—-. For a related discussion, see chapter Transport resilience and sustainability.

Over the past three decades, economic losses from disasters more than doubled from an average of US$70 billion per year in the 1990s to over US$170 billion per year in 2010–2020 -—
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—-. Furthermore, since 2020, the consequences were compounded by the economic losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, overall direct economic losses resulting from disasters equaled 0.57 per cent of GDP of all reporting countries. For LDCs, direct economic losses were estimated at 2 per cent of GDP (US$4.5 billion), for LLDCs at 1.7 per cent (US$3.7 billion), and SIDS the highest relative economic losses, 2.4 per cent of GDP (US$133 million) (Figure 3). In 2022, the recorded 387 natural hazards and disasters worldwide resulted in the loss of 30 704 lives and affected 185 million individuals. Economic losses totaled around US$223.8 billion -—
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—-. Disaster impacts increased most in Africa, e.g., with 16.4 per cent of the share of deaths compared to 3.8 per cent in the previous two decades.

Increasing efforts to build resilience

Vulnerability is multidimensional – countries may be vulnerable due to climate change, natural disasters, environmental conditions, biodiversity loss, and social and economic risks. In 2022, the United Nations General Assembly launched efforts to develop an MVIMultidimensional Vulnerability Index to define what it means to be vulnerable and support an evidence-based approach to development policy and decision making, especially to improve access to external financing for the most vulnerable countries -—
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The world is not on track in reducing vulnerabilities and risks if we look at progress within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionThe Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction -—
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—- is a global agreement endorsed by member states following the 2015 Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. It aims to guide actions to reduce disaster risk and increase the resilience of communities and countries to disasters. The framework outlines seven global targets to be achieved by 2030, namely, the substantial reduction of: (I) global disaster mortality, (II) number of affected people globally, (III) direct economic loss in relation to GDP. These indicators are also included in the 2030 Agenda. The framework also aims to increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies, enhance international cooperation in developing countries, and increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems. -—
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—-. Insufficient disaster risk management and undervaluing of environmental costs and benefits in decision making may exacerbate vulnerabilities -—
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There is an urgent need to step up affordable climate adaptation finance, including in the form of grants -—
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—- estimates that adaptation needs will reach US$127 billion and US$295 billion per year for developing countries by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The estimated adaptation costs in developing countries are five to ten times higher than current public adaptation finance flows, and the adaptation finance gap is widening -—
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—-. Countries are increasingly recognizing the importance of disaster preparedness and risk management: The number of countries with national disaster risk reduction strategies, following -—
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—- guidance, has doubled from 51 in 2015 to 102 countries by the end of 2022. Countries are increasingly recognizing the importance of disaster preparedness and risk management: The number of countries with national disaster risk reduction strategies, following -—
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—- guidance, has doubled from 51 in 2015 to 102 countries by the end of 2022.

While the frequency of disasters has increased with rising economic costs, the number of deaths and missing persons related to disasters has declined from 1.64 per 100 000 people in 2005–2015 to 0.86 in 2012–2021 globally. This could relate to the severeness of disasters, but also to efforts taken to mitigate disaster risks. Early warning systems are particularly important in preventing loss of life as they provide timely and accurate information to enhance communication and monitoring and offer protocols for dissemination of warnings and evacuation orders.

In March 2022, 95 countries reported having Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in place, and many have improved their systems over time. Coverage is lower in Africa, Americas, and the Middle East, while the highest number of countries, 26 countries, reporting early warning systems, is found in Asia and the Pacific. Over 60 per cent of countries in the region report having such a system. Europe and Central Asia are also well covered, with 29 countries and 50 per cent country coverage. But many countries with high vulnerability remain uncovered, especially SIDS. Currently, 21 LDCs (46 per cent) reported having an early warning system, and it is available in (at least) 19 LLDCs (59 per cent) and 12 SIDS (32 per cent) -—
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Note

1. These numbers do not consider people affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

References

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