World is not on track to reduce vulnerabilities and risks
Persisting increase in greenhouse gas emissions threatens development progress and future generations’ opportunities to live in a sustainable world. Human well-being relies on air, water, land and ecosystems. Achieving the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement requires protecting these resources -—
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We must change course. Continuing the trajectory of climate change, biodiversityBiodiversity refers to the diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems -—
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—-. loss, pollution and ecosystems degradation will unravel progress on the SDGsSustainable Development Goal, exacerbating hunger, poverty, conflict, disasters, and health crises. The COVID-19COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 discovered in December 2019. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19 -—
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—-. pandemicCommonly described by the WHO as ‘the worldwide spread of a new disease’, no strict definition is provided. In 2009, they set out the basic requirements for a pandemic: • New virus emerges in humans
• Minimal or no population immunity
• Causes serious illness; high morbidity/mortality
• Spreads easily from person to person
• Global outbreak of disease.
The US Centre for Disease Control uses a similar approach, but with a reduced set of criteria. It is very difficult to gauge whether the spread of a disease should be termed an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic. In other words, when to declare a pandemic isn’t a black and white decision -—
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—-. and other crises showed the fragility of socio-economic progress in the face of shocks -—
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—-. Without significant changes in our lifestyles and systems, we face severe environmental impacts. Developing economies, with limited capacity for natural resource management, disaster risk reduction, regulation, technology and financing, are particularly vulnerable.
Table of contents
Yet another record-breaking year with emissions
In 2023, climate change indicators hit new records: it was the hottest year ever, with temperatures 1.45°C (± 0.12°C) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average -—
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—-. The alarm extends beyond rising temperatures. “Unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern” -—
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—-. We are nearing the 2015 Paris Climate AgreementThe Paris Agreement is an agreement within the UNFCCC aiming is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further, to 1.5°C. It aims to strengthen countries’ ability to deal with the impacts of climate change. To reach these ambitious goals, appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity building framework are intended to support developing countries, in line with their national objectives -—
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—-. limits, which aim to keep temperature increases below 2°C from pre-industrial levels -—
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—-. Efforts to stay below 1.5°C seem highly unlikely, though not impossible -—
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—- warns that only an urgent system-wide transformation can achieve the necessary 45 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 to limit global warming to below 1.5°C.
Despite efforts, greenhouse gas emissions continued to raise. In 2022, the atmospheric concentrations of the main greenhouse gases, carbon dioxideCarbon dioxide (CO2) is a colourless, odourless and non-poisonous gas formed by combustion of carbon and in the respiration of living organisms -—
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—-., methane and nitrous oxide, all reached new record highs – with estimates indicating continued growth in 2023 -—
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—-. In 2023, total energy-related CO2Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colourless, odourless and non-poisonous gas formed by combustion of carbon and in the respiration of living organisms -—
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—-. emissions (representing roughly 80 per cent of all CO2 emissions) increased by 1.1 per cent, far from falling rapidly to meet the Paris Agreement. The concentration of methane, which is 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide in global warming, saw its highest level in 40 years -—
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—-; although its growth slowed down somewhat in 2022, it remained above 15 per cent -—
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—-. Following a temporary 3.6 per cent decline in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (figure 1), total emissions grew by 1.4 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021, reaching 53.8 GtGigaton CO2eCarbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential. It represents the quantity of carbon dioxide that has equal global warming potential as the given quantity of a greenhouse gas -—
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—-., 2.3 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Figure 1. Huge cuts are needed, but greenhouse gas emissions continued to increaseSource: UNCTAD calculations based on EDGAR Community GHGGreenhouse gas (GHG) is an atmospheric gas that lets the solar radiation reach the Earth’s surface, but absorbs infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and thereby leads to the heating of the surface of the planet. The main GHGs the concentrations of which are rising are CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases, and ozone in the lower atmosphere. -—
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—- database version 8.0 -—
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—- for CO2 emissions & greenhouse gases and -—
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Note: Emissions from land-use changeLand-use change refers to a change in the use or management of land by humans, which may lead to a change in land cover -—
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—-. are not included. The baseline year for the target path is 2016.
Energy prices stabilized in 2023, yet volatility increases vulnerabilities
Fuel prices surged in 2022, affected by the war in Ukraine and bans on gas and oil imports, reflected as several-fold increase of prices in August 2022. Prices stabilized at the beginning of 2023 (figure 2). This volatility caused significant struggles to households and businesses, setting back progress towards universal energy access as millions could no longer afford electricity -—
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—-. High fossil fuel prices also increased food prices and disrupted supply chains (see Trade, food security and agriculture). Although fuels and natural gas prices returned to mid-2021 levels, they remained slightly more volatile than food prices. A significant drop in natural gas prices at the start of 2024 may ease pressures on vulnerable populations.
Figure 2. Prices of natural gas and fuels peaked in August 2022, returned to stability Source: UNCTADstat -—
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Low-income countries most affected by disasters
Greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and other sources are driving the growing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. According to -—
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—-, the rapid decline in biodiversity, land degradation, and water resource stress undermines the resilienceThe ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management -—
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—-. of human systems, making it harder to cope with escalating disasters.
The number of recorded disasters has increased fivefold over the past 50 years -—
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—-. Disasters are expected to continue expanding -—
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—-, along with their impacts on human lives. From 2013 to 2022, an annual average of 1 980 people per 100 000 were directly affected by disasters, a two-thirds increase from 1 169 in 2005-2014 -—
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—-.1 Despite contributing the least to climate change -—
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—-, low-income countries have the most exposed populations; 70 per cent of the world’s disasters occur in these countries -—
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—-. LDCsLeast developed country, LLDCsLandlocked developing country and SIDSSmall island developing states (SIDS) were recognized as a distinct group of developing countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. More information on UNCTAD official page. also suffer the highest disaster impacts (figure 3). In LDCs and LLDCs, the number of disaster-related deaths and missing persons (per 100 000 population) was 2.7 times the global average and in SIDS 2.13 times higher -—
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—-. As population growth continues, developing countries are projected to have even higher numbers of people affected -—
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Figure 3. LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS continue to pay the heaviest human and economic toll of disasters Source: UNCTAD calculations based on -—
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Disasters’ impacts on human life also arise indirectly. From 2015 to 2022, over 100 000 critical infrastructure units, including schools and hospitals, were damaged or destroyed annually -—
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—-. More than 12 million educational, health, and basic services were disrupted in the same period -—
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—-, averaging 1.6 million disruptions per year. The destruction of infrastructure, agricultural land, and productive assets results in loss of income and jobs.
Economic losses from disasters have more than doubled over the past three decades, from an average of $70 billion per year in the 1990s to over $170 billion per year in 2010–2020 -—
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—-. Since 2020, these losses have been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2015 and 2022, annual economic losses from disasters averaged 0.3 per cent of GDPGross domestic product (GDP) is an aggregate measure of production, income and expenditure of an economy. As a production measure, it represents the gross value added, i.e., the output net of intermediate consumption, achieved by all resident units engaged in production, plus any taxes less subsidies on products not included in the value of output. As an income measure, it represents the sum of primary incomes (gross wages and entrepreneurial income) distributed by resident producers, plus taxes less subsidies on production and imports. As an expenditure measure, it depicts the sum of expenditure on final consumption, gross capital formation (i.e., investment, changes in inventories, and acquisitions less disposals of valuables) and exports after deduction of imports -—
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—-. globally, with LDCs facing losses of almost 2 per cent of GDP and LLDCs 1.2 per cent (figure 3) -—
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Droughts are particularly devastating. The Global Drought Snapshot 2023 highlighted an “unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale” due to human-induced droughts starting to unfold -—
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—-. Drought incidents have doubled in the past 40 years, with their geographic range expanding -—
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—-. Rising temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns have increased the number and duration of droughts by 29 per cent since 2000 -—
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—-. Currently, 1.84 billion people are affected by drought in 101 reporting countries -—
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—- exacerbating water scarcity for 40 per cent of the world’s population -—
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—-. In high-income countries, extreme droughts reduce growth by a little less than half the impact felt in developing countries -—
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—-. In 2022, 2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water services (SDG 6.1.1) -—
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—-. With rising temperatures droughts also increase food insecurity. Additionally, increased temperatures are estimated to decrease labour productivity by 50 per cent at 34°C, particularly affecting low-income countries relying on agriculture -—
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—-. In late 2022 droughts, 23 million people in the Horn of Africa experienced severe food insecurityFood insecurity is a situation where an individual cannot reliably access or afford healthy food. The FAO describes a moderately food insecure person as someone who cannot afford a healthy diet. has experienced uncertainty about the ability to access food and is likely to skip meals occasionally because of lack of resources. A severely food insecure person has at times run out of food and has during the last year gone a whole day without food. For SDG indicator 2.1.2, food insecurity is estimated based on survey data using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale developed by FAO. It consists of eight questions pertaining to whether the respondents or their families have reduced the quantity or quality of consumed food over the last 12 months because of lack of resources. -—
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—-, with 5.1 million children acutely malnourished -—
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—-. In 2023, the same region suffered substantial flooding -—
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Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and cyclones, are causing increasing coastal and river flooding. Between 1970 and 2019, 31 per cent of economic losses were attributable to flooding -—
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—-. Without adaptation measures, the value of assets exposed to coastal flooding could reach 12–20 per cent of global GDP by 2100 -—
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—- and damage caused by riverine flooding with 2°C warming has been projected to increase by 170 per cent -—
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—-. Global flood damages due to sea-level rise (and related extreme events) could amount to up to $27 trillion per year, or 2.8 per cent of global GDP by 2100 -—
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—-. For a related discussion, see chapter Transport resilience and sustainability.
Increasing efforts to track vulnerability and build resilience
Vulnerability is multidimensional, encompassing climate change, natural disasters, environmental conditions, biodiversity loss, and social and economic risks. In 2022, the United Nations General Assembly initiated efforts to develop the MVIMultidimensional Vulnerability Index to define vulnerability and support evidence-based policy response, especially to improve access to financing for vulnerable countries -—
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—-. Initial results indicate that high structural vulnerability and lack of resilience are not significantly associated with low income level -—
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The world is not on track to fully realise its potentials to reduce vulnerabilities and risks, as measured by progress within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionThe Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction -—
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—- is a global agreement endorsed by member states following the 2015 Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. It aims to guide actions to reduce disaster risk and increase the resilience of communities and countries to disasters. The framework outlines seven global targets to be achieved by 2030, namely, the substantial reduction of: (I) global disaster mortality, (II) number of affected people globally, (III) direct economic loss in relation to GDP. These indicators are also included in the 2030 Agenda. The framework also aims to increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies, enhance international cooperation in developing countries, and increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems. -—
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—-. Countries are increasingly recognizing the importance of disaster preparedness and risk management: the number of countries that have adopted and implemented national disaster risk reduction strategies (Sendai Framework Target E) disaster risk reduction strategies, following -—
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—- guidance, has more than doubled from 55 countries in 2015 to 129 countries in 2023. In the meantime, 104 countries established coverage of multi-hazard early warning systems in 2023, representing 53 per cent of all countries in the world (Sendai Framework Target G, map 1). However, less than half of LDCs (20 out of 45 countries) reported having MHEWSMulti-hazard Early Warning System, compared to 19 LLDCs (59 per cent) and 14 SIDS (out of 37 reporting SIDS). Despite gaps, the number of LDCs (11 in 2015), LLDCs (9) and SIDS (5) with MHEWS has doubled or tripled since 2015.
Early warning systems are crucial for preventing loss of life as they provide timely and accurate information, enhance communication and monitoring, and offer protocols for disseminating warnings and evacuation orders. Secretary-General António Guterres’s Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) Initiative, launched in 2022, called for close collaboration among UN entities in a global effort to protect everyone on Earth under early warning systems by 2027 -—
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Map 1. 104 countries reporting having Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems, as of October 2023Source: -—
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Note: The countries shown in grey on the map could have either i) reported a 0 score, indicating they do not have a MHEWS in place; or ii) they never reported, and may not have such a system in place; iii) they never reported, but may actually have some sort of an early warning system in place; or iv) are dependent territories and detailed data on the existence MHEWS have not been provided.
Over 400 million people in LDCs and SIDS now have access to better predictions and warnings for floods, drought, heat waves, and tropical cyclones -—
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—-. However, progress remains insufficient, with 62 million people in the last two decades living in countries without operational early warning systems. UNCTAD‘s Remoteness Index -—
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—- shows that geographically remote countries need digital and physical infrastructure investments to ensure connectivity and effective hazard monitoring.
Many remote and developing countries struggle to meet adaptation and mitigation objectives due to financial constraints. These countries are increasingly facing climate-related loss and damage. UNCTAD welcomes the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund (Loss and Damage Fund, LDF) -—
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—-, which should provide new, additional, predictable, and adequate financial resources to assist vulnerable developing countries -—
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—-. This includes funding for rehabilitation, recovery, and reconstruction to address climate change impacts, including from extreme weather events and slow onset processes -—
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—-. In 2019, the projected costs for loss and damage in developing countries were as high as $435 billion in 2020, expected to reach $580 billion in 2030 -—
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—- – figures that may now be vastly underestimated due to pandemic impacts and inflation. UNCTAD estimates the need for initial funding of $150 billion a year from the Fund, considering the $109 billion in estimated loss and damage costs for developing countries in 2022. Parties should aim to progressively increase annual replenishment targets, aiming for $300 billion by 2030 -—
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Note
- These numbers do not consider people affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
References
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