Trade in critical minerals shapes energy transition, digital transformation and industrial development worldwide

Rethinking the role of critical minerals for development

The global shift toward a low-carbon economy has intensified the demand for critical minerals, placing resource-rich developing countries at the centre of a new geopolitical and economic landscape. In this context, UNCTAD plays a role from the development perspective by promoting fair, inclusive and sustainable trade in critical minerals. UNCTAD also co-led the Secretariat of the United Nations Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals -—
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—-, which focused on how to guide critical energy transition minerals towards equity and justice.

The UN Panel defines critical energy transition minerals as minerals necessary to construct, produce, distribute and store renewable energy, including copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, graphite, REEsRare earth element and aluminum required for electric vehicles and battery storage; and silicon, cadmium, tellurium and selenium (among others) that build solar panels. Wind and hydropower, for instance, require copper and chromium, zinc and aluminium -—
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—- highlights the urgent need for resource-rich regions to move beyond exporting raw minerals to increasing the economic value of their mineral resources. Foreign direct investmentForeign Direct Investment (FDI) is an investment involving a long-term relationship and reflecting a lasting interest and control by a resident entity in one economy (foreign direct investor or parent enterprise) in an enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the foreign direct investor (FDI enterprise or affiliate enterprise or foreign affiliate) -—
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—-. plays a key role in supporting this transition by helping resource-rich countries build local refining and processing capacities and move up the mineral value chain. The Africa Green Minerals Strategy highlights that the continent holds a substantial share of global reserves of minerals essential for the energy transition, including over 50% of global cobalt, 40% of manganese and significant deposits of lithium, REEs and PGMPlatinum-group metals -—
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—-. The Democratic Republic of Congo illustrates this potential: by processing its cobalt locally, the country nearly tripled its export value, with $6 billion cobalt exports in 2022, compared to $167 million from previously unprocessed cobalt -—
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—-. In Latin America and the Caribbean, a major supplier of lithium and copper, the challenge is to shift away from enclave-style extraction that is economically isolated toward integrating extraction into national, higher value-added industrial activities.

At COP29The 29^th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, held in November 2024 in Azerbaijan., UNCTAD outlined four strategic priorities to address a $225 billion investment gap in mining projects across developing economies: investment in infrastructure, fairer trade rules, transparent governance and knowledge sharing -—
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—-, aligning with the UN Panel’s principles on equitable benefit-sharing.

At the international investment policy level, a number of recent IIAsInternational Investment Agreement (IIA) are treaties with investment provisions (e.g. a free trade agreement with an investment chapter) between two or more countries include commitments regarding cross-border investments (foreign investment or FDI), typically for the purpose of protection and promotion of such investments. They include two types of agreements: (1) bilateral investment treaties and (2) treaties with investment provisions -—
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—-. include specific provisions facilitating and promoting investment in energy and raw materials. These provisions aim to improve the investment environment and remove ground-level obstacles for investors’ activities. Certain recent IIAs for instance provide for the transparency and simplification of procedures for investment in raw materials (see e.g. the European Union-New Zealand FTA -—
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—-). When aligned with countries’ national critical minerals strategies, IIAs can support industrial and investment policy objectives for strategic mineral resources. At the same time, IIAs composed of thousands of agreements may limit space to regulate critical minerals’ extraction and exploitation and raise the risk of costly investor-state disputes. For example, at least five cases in 2024 involved the mining of critical minerals, such as copper -—
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—-, lithium -—
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—-, titanium potentially contained in heavy mineral sands deposits -—
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This SDGSustainable Development Goal Pulse In-Focus provides data-driven analysis of trade and production of critical minerals and proposes UNCTAD’s list of critical minerals. This work builds on the UN Panel’s definition adding to it a review of minerals strategic for developing economies, mapping existing classifications of critical minerals, and offering statistical analysis of what makes minerals critical for both developed and developing economies.

Toward a comprehensive list of critical minerals for trade and development

UNCTAD considers minerals¹ critical not only by their global importance and supply risks but by their relevance for trade and development, reflecting the priorities of developing economies. A mineral is considered critical if it supports structural transformationStructural transformation or change can be broadly defined as the reallocation of economic activity across three broad sectors, agriculture, manufacturing and services, which accompanies the process of economic growth -—
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—-. It usually refers to the transfer or shift of production factors — especially labour, capital and land — away from activities and sectors with low productivity to those with higher productivity, which are typically different in location, organization and technology -—
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—-., energy and digital transitions, or industrial upgrading, while it might also pose supply risks, or offer trade opportunities.

This list of 60 critical minerals mapped to 499 harmonized systemThe Harmonized System (HS) is an international nomenclature developed by the World Customs Organization, which is arranged in six-digit codes allowing all participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis. Beyond the six-digit level, countries are free to introduce national distinctions for tariffs and many other purposes. (HSThe Harmonized System (HS) is an international nomenclature developed by the World Customs Organization, which is arranged in six-digit codes allowing all participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis. Beyond the six-digit level, countries are free to introduce national distinctions for tariffs and many other purposes.) codes can inform the analysis of global trade in minerals and support SDG-aligned national strategies. The data enables analysis of trade dependence, export restrictions, production concentration and value-added potential. While the current list focuses on raw and semi-processed minerals and metals, it could be further expanded in the future to enable the analysis of processed critical minerals and their role in circular economyA circular economy is an economy where: (i) the value of materials in the economy is maximised and maintained for as long as possible; (ii) the input of materials and their consumption is minimised; and (iii) the generation of waste is prevented and negative environmental impacts reduced throughout the life-cycle of materials -—
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—-. and global value chains (see the full list in annex 2.). All subsequent analysis draws on this UNCTAD list and its categorization.

As part of this approach, minerals were grouped by their relevance to the energy transition into three categories: those required for the transition (27) (e.g., cobalt, copper, lithium, REEs), relevant to it (10) (e.g., iron ore and steel, palladium, zirconium), and other critical minerals (23) (e.g., gold, gypsum, lead, silver). This distinction helps highlight which materials are under increasing geopolitical and economic scrutiny due to their strategic importance in clean energy technologies. Indeed, this supports targeted analysis of materials essential to technologies like electric vehicles, solar panels and hydrogen systems. Critical status was then assessed using two key indicators, Revealed Comparative Advantage and Trade Concentration Index (for both exports and imports), to classify minerals into high, moderate, or low criticality. See annex 1. for the full list of methodological steps.

Trade in critical minerals reached $2.5 trillion in 2023, with Asia emerging as the world’s largest importing market

In 2023, global trade in raw and semi-processed minerals reached approximately $2.57 trillion in imports and $2.52 trillion in exports. This trade segment represented over 10% of total global exports, highlighting its critical role in the international economy.

Regionally, Asia emerged as the largest market for critical minerals, accounting for $1.5 trillion in imports, more than half of the global total—while exporting only $825 billion, with China accounting for roughly 40 per cent of imports in the Asia region. This substantial trade deficit of around $680 billion underscores Asia's role as the primary global hub for processing and manufacturing activities that relies heavily on critical mineral inputs.

In contrast, Africa, the Americas and Oceania recorded significant trade surpluses, indicating their dominant roles as suppliers of critical minerals. Africa exported nearly $266 billion reflecting a share of 10.6% of world trade, while importing only $68 billion, and Oceania, despite relatively low import volumes, exported over $239 billion. The Americas also showed strong export performance, with a surplus of nearly $194 billion. Europe maintained a more balanced trade profile, with exports slightly exceeding imports. These patterns highlight the global supply chain structure, where mineral-rich regions provide essential inputs for the energy transition, while industrialized and manufacturing-heavy regions, particularly Asia, drive demand. These trade patterns also reflect underlying investment trends in extraction and processing, which shape the geography of mineral value chains.

Minerals required for energy transition drive $773 billion in exports – one third of the total exports of critical minerals

In 2023, global exports of critical minerals required for energy transition amounted to $773 billion (31% of global exports of critical minerals), $674 billion (27%) for minerals relevant to energy transition, and $1,078 billion (43%) for all other critical minerals.

Critical mineral exports grew significantly from 2005 to 2023 across all regions, with Asia and Europe leading in total values. Asia shows the most significant and sustained increase, driven largely by exports of other critical minerals and those relevant to energy transition. The Americas display fluctuating trends among the three segments of critical minerals, with strong overall growth, while Africa records steady growth with a gradual rise in energy-transition-related minerals. Oceania, though starting from a lower base, shows consistent increased and a balanced export mix. Overall, the data reflects increasing global supply for critical minerals, especially for clean energy minerals, such as cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel and REEs.

Data show deep bilateral dependencies in critical minerals’ trade

In 2023, global trade in critical minerals revealed deep bilateral dependencies. Australia emerged as the top exporter by trade value, with over $231 billion in critical mineral exports, primarily to China, Japan and India. Other major exporters included the United States and China. Notable trade corridors included Australia–China ($95 billion), Hong Kong–China ($43 billion) and Canada–United States ($41 billion). Several bilateral flows exceeded $10 billion, including those between the Democratic Republic of Congo and China, the United Arab Emirates and India, and Brazil and China, underscoring Asia’s central role as a demand hub. These patterns highlight the strategic concentration of mineral supply chains.

Battery and electric vehicle manufacturing affect the top traded minerals globally

Copper, aluminium and nickel are the top traded critical minerals essential for energy transition, together with other energy-relevant minerals, such as iron ore and steel, sulphur and potassium.

Africa emerged as the breakout performer in copper, nearly doubling exports (+98.2% to $44 billion) to meet surging demand for electrical infrastructure and electric vehicles. The continent also led nickel growth with a remarkable 122.8% surge, while Asia's nickel exports more than doubled (+107.5% to $15 billion), fuelled by battery manufacturing needs.

Iron ore maintained its position as an important industrial mineral, with Asia's exports growing 52.8% to $192 billion – underscoring ongoing steel demand. Oceania's iron ore shipments grew steadily (+33.7% to $94 billion), although outpaced by its metallurgical coal expansion.

Energy transition needs are significantly reshaping trade flows of critical minerals as reflected by the top 10 globally exported minerals, with regions rich in critical metals gaining strategic economic leverage.

Top mineral producers aren’t always the top exporters

Data reveal striking patterns of concentration in the production of critical minerals: China leads in aluminium and REEs, while the Democratic Republic of Congo dominates cobalt. Australia is the top producer of lithium, and Chile remains the foremost copper producer. However, production statistics are not mapped to HS codes, which are used in trade reporting. This disconnect makes it difficult to directly compare raw production with export volumes. Complementary investment data - particularly from project- and firm-level databases - can help fill this gap by identifying where production and processing facilities are being established by multinational firms -—
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—-. Still, a compelling narrative emerges; for instance, China, while being the top producer of several minerals, is not always the top exporter. This suggests high domestic consumption or value-added processing, where raw materials are transformed into intermediate or final products before being exported. Similarly, South Africa, which accounts for over 80% of global platinum and other PMGPlatinum-group metals production, exports less raw material than expected, as much of it is refined domestically before entering global markets. These dynamics underscore the importance of looking beyond extraction to understand the full picture of mineral flows and economic strategy and of developing a full list that identifies final goods that depend on critical minerals.

Trade in critical minerals highly regionally specialized

Figure 6 shows that Africa emerges as a dominant net exporter of critical minerals such as cobalt, manganese and platinum, reflecting its rich geological endowment and growing role in global supply chains. However, it remains reliant on imports for minerals like boron and arsenic (the latter being important for gold processing), largely due to limited domestic production capacity. Oceania, particularly Australia, plays a pivotal role as a global supplier of iron ore, nickel and zinc, yet depends on external sources for potassium and fluorspar. Asia, driven by its vast industrial base, mainly in China, faces substantial trade deficits in cobalt, manganese and chromium, although it maintains a competitive edge in the export of REEs and graphite. Europe presents a mixed profile: while it shows net surpluses in refined gold, palladium and other PMG, these are primarily the result of its advanced refining infrastructure (especially for gold) rather than raw material extraction. At the same time, Europe remains a net importer of manganese, zirconium and graphite. The Americas maintain a relatively balanced trade position, with strong exports of lithium, copper and zinc, but continue to import chromium and manganese to meet industrial demand.

Export restrictions shape critical minerals’ trade

Export restrictions can generate supply uncertainties and influence global prices, as well as investment decisions. The data show a clear pattern: minerals required for energy transition—such as copper, zinc, germanium and others, tin and nickel—face a significantly higher and growing number of export restrictions compared to other traded critical minerals. This trend reflects rising geopolitical sensitivities and growing domestic value-chain ambitions in producing countries. In contrast, minerals not directly linked to new energy technologies generally experience fewer trade restrictions. The heatmap below highlights how critical minerals are subjected to export restrictions, which may affect supply security for energy transition worldwide.

When examining critical minerals essential for the energy transition, the highest number of export restrictions between 2019 and 2023 were imposed by countries such as Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, India, Burundi and Zambia. These restrictions primarily target key minerals including copper (notably in Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Zambia and Argentina), molybdenum (Mongolia), and a group of high-tech or strategic minerals such as gallium, germanium, indium, niobium, tantalum and vanadium (notably in Burundi and Ethiopia). Zinc has also been subject to restrictions, particularly in India, Burundi and Ethiopia.

How critical are these minerals for different countries and regions?

It is possible to analyse how critical minerals are for certain countries or regions using a criteria-based approach. This can be done by analysing : (1) supply risk, captured through an import concentration index, which reflects dependency on a limited number of suppliers; (2) trade opportunity or market dominance, assessed via export concentration, indicating a region’s potential leverage or vulnerability in global markets; and (3) strategic positioning, measured through Revealed Comparative Advantage³ to identify minerals where a region holds a relative trade strength. For example, a mineral with high supply risk in Europe may be a trade opportunity for Africa, or vice versa (see table 1).

For instance, copper and phosphates are of low criticality in Africa due to abundant reserves and production capacity, yet they are highly critical in Europe, where supply is constrained. Conversely, kaolin is highly critical in Africa, while Europe maintains a more stable supply. Countries such as Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa hold significant kaolin deposits, often underutilized, but with strong potential for industrial development -—
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Minerals like graphite and nickel show moderate to high criticality across Africa and Europe, underscoring their growing importance in energy transitions. Notably, aluminium is marked as low in Africa due to bauxite abundance, but this overlooks the continent’s limited refining infrastructure, which constrains value addition, suggesting a potentially higher strategic relevance. Finally, it is important to assess the role of critical minerals in a flexible and context-specific way to correctly inform policy and investment strategies also in developing regions.

Global supply of critical minerals increasingly dependent on fewer exporters

Between 2019 and 2023, the export concentration indexThis index measures, for each product, the degree of export market concentration by country of origin. It tells us if a large share of commodity exports is accounted for by a small number of countries or, on the contrary, if exports are well distributed among many countries. The index ranges from 0 to 1 with higher values indicating more market concentration -—
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—-. reveals a sharp rise for minerals such as cobalt, chromium, lithium and graphite, suggesting that global supply has become increasingly dependent on fewer exporters. This trend is particularly noticeable for graphite and lithium, which are essential for energy storage and battery technologies. Conversely, minerals like perlite, cerium and zirconium have seen a decline in concentration, indicating a more diversified and potentially resilient supply landscape.

Based on production and market concentration (figure 10), the most strategically vulnerable minerals—those in the top-right quadrant—include cobalt, beryllium, graphite and magnesium. Those are characterized by high concentration, and thus a heavy reliance on a small number of countries for both supply and demand. In contrast, minerals like copper, gold, sulphur and tin (the bottom-left quadrant) are widely produced and traded, suggesting a more stable and competitive market environment.

Minerals in the upper-left quadrant are produced by a few countries but exported to a wide range of markets. Producers such as Australia and Brazil for iron ore, China for aluminium, and Brazil and China for gallium, germanium, indium, niobium, tantalum and vanadium have a strategic opportunity to expand processing capacity, deepen industrial linkages, and strengthen their role in global supply chains. As countries accelerate the shift to low-carbon technologies and digital infrastructure, ensuring resilient and diversified mineral supply chains becomes increasingly critical.

Mapping of classifications and lists for assessing critical minerals

UNCTAD has developed a comprehensive list of raw and semi-processed critical minerals by mapping and analysing the classification approaches used by leading international and regional institutions, as well as reviewing national and regional assessments. The mapping includes the IEA’s demand-driven approach focused on clean energy technologies, the EU’s broad industrial and sustainability-oriented framework, the USGS’s national security lens, and the WTO-ADB’s trade-based classification. It also incorporates insights from the OECD’s governance and trade monitoring tools, the World Bank’s demand trajectory analysis, ESCWA’s development-focused regional perspective, as well as the AU’s agenda for structural transformation and climate resilienceThe ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management -—
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—-.. By comparing how different institutions define and classify critical minerals, UNCTAD identifies areas of convergence and divergence. This makes it easier to see which minerals are consistently considered critical and which are particularly important for structural transformation in developing economies. The comparison also lays the groundwork for a more consistent basis for monitoring trade and production, while keeping development priorities at the centre.

Bringing a developing economy perspective to critical minerals

Emerging academic research emphasizes that mineral criticality is context-dependent, shaped by national priorities, capacities and development goals rather than being an inherent or fixed property. Most existing frameworks reflect the perspectives of high-income importing countries, focusing on supply risks and economic importance -—
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—-. In contrast, mineral-exporting developing economies, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (cobalt), Indonesia (nickel), Chile (copper and lithium), and Brazil (niobium and REEs), tend to prioritize domestic industrial development, environmental governance and trade leverage.

For instance, Indonesia restricts exports of unprocessed nickel to boost local processing and manufacturing, while Chile is developing public-private partnerships to manage its lithium industry more effectively. These cases highlight the need for frameworks that consider a country’s ability to move up the value chain, through processing or advanced manufacturing, and its institutional capacity to compete in global markets.

Extending this developmental perspective, -—
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—- propose a dynamic framework that integrates global supply-demand factors with national capacities in extraction, processing and governance. Rather than relying on a fixed mineral list, they prioritize minerals central to the green transition—such as lithium, cobalt and REEs—allowing for flexible classification informed by country-specific contexts which could also be more suited for emerging and resource-rich economies. These frameworks advocate aligning mineral policy not only with supply security and international demand but also with national priorities.

The Africa Green Minerals Strategy underscores the importance of using mineral resources to drive domestic value addition, job creation and regional industrialization, moving beyond Africa’s traditional role as a raw material exporter -—
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—-. It sees the rising global demand for critical minerals, shaped by efforts to reach toward net-zero emissions, as an opportunity to link mineral development with broader goals, such as strengthening climate resilience, diversifying economies and reducing poverty through inclusive growth. The Africa Mining Vision -—
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—- highlights the importance of clear rules, fair local processing and stronger negotiation skills to make sure that benefits of mining reach people and support long-term development.

UNCTAD assessed national and regional strategies related to minerals and their economic role. This revealed a diversity of terminology, including critical minerals, strategic minerals, green minerals and critical raw minerals, depending on context (see table 3).

Countries define and communicate about critical minerals differently, with some publishing strategies (e.g., EU or the United Kingdom) or acts (e.g., Argentina and Brazil), and others offering preliminary assessments (e.g., Colombia and Indonesia). An analysis of 13 countries and regions reveals eight factors for assessing how critical a mineral is for: the economy, energy transition, industry, infrastructure, international trade, security, supply chains and technology, and these can be disaggregated further into their sub-factors (see annex 3.).

Developing economies’ assessments of critical minerals are more varied, often focusing on inputs for domestic industries and national security. Supply risk is the most cited criterion overall, mentioned by eight of thirteen countries or regions, universally by developed economies, but only by one-third of developing ones. Developing economies also highlight criteria such as food security, defense, industrial development, employment and comparative advantage. They place particular emphasis on the role of minerals in generating government revenue and foreign exchange.

In contrast, developed economies uniquely emphasize maintaining supply chains, international trade and economic stability. They also consider alternative sourcing, recycling and substitution options. Only half of the countries explicitly reference the energy transition, digital economy or technology in their definitions, though most strategies are implicitly linked to these goals.

A more inclusive understanding of critical minerals can reflect diverse economic structures, such as the importance of agriculture and food security, and account for mineral endowments, market concentration and fiscal dependence, especially in resource-rich developing countries.

While there is overlap in mineral lists, developing economies often include gold and iron ore, excluded from most developed country lists due to their large, liquid markets. Their inclusion reflects their fiscal and developmental importance in the global South.

What is critical today might not be tomorrow

UNCTAD’s classification of critical minerals aims to be dynamic. Minerals like lithium and cobalt have become essential due to their role in battery production, with demand expected to rise sharply by 2040 -—
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—-. Others, such as hafnium and bismuth -—
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—-, are gaining attention for emerging technologies. Meanwhile, advances in recycling, substitution and efficiency can reduce reliance on primary materials, reshaping which minerals are considered critical. As these factors evolve, so must the frameworks used to define criticality.

Geopolitical shifts, trade tensions and supply disruptions also influence mineral criticality. This calls for adaptable strategies in resource management and international cooperation. Minerals represent both risks and opportunities, for industrialization, green growth and trade diversification.

However, several challenges limit countries’ ability to assess and benefit from their mineral resources. A key issue is the lack of specific trade data for informed policy action. HS codes often group minerals into broad categories, and this is compounded by missing or inconsistent trade data. These gaps hinder efforts to monitor trade, assess risks and design effective policies. As critical minerals gain importance, improving detailed trade data by means of capacity building becomes more urgent.

Future work could further explore the priorities of developing economies, incorporating broader criteria aligned with their development needs. This includes integrating environmental and social dimensions, such as recycling potential, responsible sourcing and early circular economy practices. In addition, the list of critical minerals should remain adaptable to reflect emerging technologies, sectoral shifts and evolving development goals. Improving the granularity of trade classifications, particularly through engagement with the World Customs Organization on HS code revisions, is essential to better capture mineral processing stages and product differentiation. This would enable expanding analysis to finished goods and enhancing trade data quality through cooperation with customs and national statistical offices. Country case studies could help to deepen the understanding of value creation. In the future, UNCTAD’s could integrate greenfieldGreenfield FDI is a new investment made by setting up a new foreign affiliate (as opposed to acquiring or leasing existing facilities). and firm-level investment data as a complementary source for information on production alongside trade data.

Finally, the UNCTAD16 intergovernmental meeting offers a platform for member States to discuss evolving priorities and provide input on analytical needs based on national goals and technological trends. UNCTAD’s current list of critical-strategic minerals is a starting point. It is designed to evolve, guided by a multidimensional approach that reflects global relevance and development needs, especially for energy, digital and industrial transitions.

Annexes

Annex 1. UNCTAD’s approach to identifying critical minerals

To develop a comprehensive and inclusive list of critical minerals relevant to global energy transition and industrial needs and tailored to reflect the priorities of both developing and developed economies, UNCTAD undertook a systematic, multi-step exercise. The process was designed to be transparent, data-driven and grounded in expert input. The list was built from the ground up, starting with national and regional priorities, refined through expert consultations, and validated using trade data. A key innovation is the systematic mapping of each mineral to HS codes, enabling robust trade analysis and policy relevance. The methodology involved reviewing national and institutional critical mineral lists, assessing country strategies, and refining selections through expert feedback and trade indicators. The final output, a harmonized list of 60 critical minerals, mapped by 499 HS codes, supports trade policy analysis while accounting for global development priorities. Below is an overview of the key steps in UNCTAD’s methodology.

Step 1: Review of country, regional and institutional critical mineral lists

UNCTAD compiled critical mineral lists from national, regional and international sources, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan and the United States; regional bodies like the African Union and European Union; and international organizations including the IEA, OECD, IRENA, WTO-ADB, World Bank and ESCWA.

Step 2: Assessment of country strategies and criteria for critical minerals

UNCTAD carried out an assessment of countries’ strategies and criteria for identifying critical minerals. This provided a validation to the selection of minerals to be included on UNCTAD’s comprehensive list, intended to ensure inclusive consideration of minerals that are critical for both developed and developing economies. The review assessed a sample of strategic documents and how they approached critical minerals, including in African Union, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, European Union, India, Indonesia, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States of America.

Step 3. Selection of a list of critical minerals

UNCTAD developed a reference list of 85 critical raw and semi-processed materials based on mapped classifications and country-level strategic priorities. The selection reflects the needs of both developing and developed economies, with a focus on clean energy, digitalization and industrial growth. Expert judgment, trade exposure and targeted data were used. The list adopts an inclusive approach but includes instances of double counting, such as listing REEs as a group alongside individual elements (e.g., dysprosium, neodymium), and similarly for PMG.

Step 4: HS code identification using HS 2022

Each mineral was matched to appropriate 6-digit HS codes based on traded forms (e.g., ores, refined metals). Care was taken to avoid misclassification, especially for mixed-use products. Some materials were grouped due to classification challenges, resulting in a final list of 60 critical minerals, covering raw and semi-processed minerals. Special attention was paid to distinguishing between pure substances and downstream or mixed-use products.

Step 5. Backward correspondence across HS revisions

To enable historical trade analysis, HS 2022 codes were mapped to earlier versions (HS 2017, 2012, 2007, 2002) using official tables and expert input. This ensured consistency across countries and time periods.

Step 6. Trade data integration and validation

Mapped HS codes were used to extract trade data from UN Comtrade. Volumes and values were validated through cross-checks, producing a consistent dataset for analyzing trade flows and dependencies.

Step 7. Grouping minerals by energy transition relevance

Minerals were categorized into three groups:

• Required for the energy transition (27)
• Relevant to the energy transition (10)
• Other critical minerals (23)

This classification integrates global frameworks (e.g., IEA, World Bank) and regional priorities (e.g., ESCWA), including UNCTAD expertise. The grouping supports targeted analysis of materials essential to green technologies like electric vehicles, solar panels and hydrogen systems.

Step 8. Classifying minerals by criticality status

After compiling the relevant trade data, we calculated indicators based on HS codes. We ultimately focused on two key indicators:

1. Revealed Comparative Advantage
2. Trade Concentration Index (for both exports and imports)

Using these indicators, the scores for each mineral across different regions were generated. Based on these scores, minerals have been categorized into three levels of criticality: High, Moderate and Low. Additional indicators, such as dependency ratios, can be considered to further refine the assessment.

Annex 2. Full UNCTAD list (mapped to HS Codes)

Annex 3. Comparative overview of national and regional approaches to Critical Minerals assessment

Notes

1. Although the term ‘minerals’ is used throughout for simplicity, the analysis covers both minerals and metals. For instance, it refers to minerals that are economically important and face a high risk of supply disruption. Many of these minerals are sources of critical metals, for example, lithium, cobalt, nickel and REEs are all classified as critical minerals, and they yield metals that are essential for clean energy technologies, electronics and defense applications. So, while not all metals are considered critical, many critical minerals do produce or contain metals, and the terms are often used together in this strategic context.
2. The estimate refers to total IFFsIllicit financial flows from all sources, not just those related to trade in critical minerals. These flows include tax evasion, corruption and other illicit activities that drain public resources and undermine development -—
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3. See, for example, -—
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   —- for foundational work on revealed comparative advantage.

References

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