Goal 9: Industry, innovation and infrastructure Sustainability and resilience 

Transport resilience and sustainability

Uncertainty and disruptions are affecting maritime transport, its sustainability and resilience

sonia

SDG indicators
Goal 9: Industry, innovation and infrastructure
Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all
Indicator 9.1.2: Passenger and freight volumes, by mode of transport (Tier I)

Infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, significantly impacts the attainment of all SDGs, influencing 92% of the 169 individual targets (Thacker et al., 2018). Transport infrastructure and services facilitate trade, support global supply chains, propel growth, and promote social progress. While multimodality is essential for door-to-door delivery of goods, maritime transport dominates, accounting for over 80% of world merchandise trade (UNCTAD, 2023a)1. The Bridgetown Covenant emphasized the strategic importance of transport for sustainable economic growth, regional integration, and developing countries’ participation in the global economy. It highlighted the need for resilient transport systems that can withstand shocks, recover and adapt to change, thereby fostering a more inclusive world and shared prosperity. Additionally, the Covenant stresses the need to enhance the sustainability and resilience of transport infrastructure and services, along with promoting the conservation and sustainable use of oceans and their resources (UNCTAD, 2021a).

Global maritime trade sustained as shipping and ports continue to navigate a shifting operating landscape

In 2023 and 2024, maritime transport and trade grappled with increased volatility and uncertainty against the backdrop of growing geopolitical risks and conflicts, heightened trade policy tensions, and climate change impacts, alongside an accelerated sustainability, decarbonization and digitalization global policy agenda (UNCTAD, 2023a). Reconfigured shipping routes, capacity reallocation, increased distances and shifting trading patterns have become a new normal. Traffic passing through critical chokepoints, like the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, was severely interrupted in 2023 and 2024 (UNCTAD, 2024). The Red Sea continues to face ship rerouting onto longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, with ship transits running 70% down on the regular trend (Clarksons Research, 2025).

In 2023, maritime trade remained almost constant at 11.6 billion tons.

In 2023, maritime trade remained almost constant, while the long-term trend is increasing, at an average annual growth rate of 2.7% between 2000 and 2023. Volumes stood at 11.6 billion tons in 2023, below the 2021 levels, but only by 85 million tons (figure 1). Volumes are projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and on average by 2.4%, annually, until 2029 (UNCTAD, 2024).

Figure 1. Global maritime trade resilient amid disruption Figure 1. Global maritime trade resilient amid disruption

Source: UNCTADstat (UNCTAD, 2025a).

Note: Since April 2025, the seaborne trade figures have been compiled by a new method using official international merchandise trade statistics as main source.

Historically, developing economies served mainly as loading centres of low-value high-volume commodities such as oil and raw materials. Starting in 2000s, their maritime trade profiles have been shifting with their influence increasing and their maritime import share expanding rapidly. Since 2014, this share has been exceeding their share of exports (figure 2). Developing economies have now become major world maritime importers and exporters (UNCTAD, 2018a), playing a stronger role than in the past as users and suppliers of maritime transport infrastructure and services.

Figure 2. Importance of developing economies as seaborne trade importers rising Figure 2. Importance of developing economies as seaborne trade importers rising
Share of ports in developing economies in volumes of goods loaded and discharged at maritime ports (percentage)

Source: UNCTADstat (UNCTAD, 2025a).

Note: Since April 2025, the seaborne trade figures have been compiled by a new method using official international merchandise trade statistics as main source.

Container port traffic growing globally, despite regional variations and temporal fluctuations

Global maritime container trade rose by 217 million TEU over ten years until 2023.

In 2023, world container ports handled 858.2 million TEU, 217 million TEU more cargo than a decade earlier (see figure 3). In the last years, ports faced several disruptions including due to strikes of port workers, truck drivers and logistics operators, congestion caused by vessel rerouting, and a shift in port call patterns. As maritime transport decarbonization and energy transition goals solidify, ports are also repositioning themselves to enable the energy transition in maritime transport (UNCTAD, 2022a). Many are embracing electrification, shore power, renewable energy, digitalization and automation to become smart (UNCTAD, 2023b), enhance efficiency and promote sustainability (UNCTAD, 2021c) and resilience (UNCTAD, 2023c).

Figure 3. Volumes handled at world container ports rising Figure 3. Volumes handled at world container ports rising
Million TEU

Source: UNCTADstat (UNCTAD, 2025a).

Weather and climate-driven extreme events pose increasing risks for global ports, making adaptation, resilience-building and disaster risk reduction an urgent imperative

Ports are critical for global trade and sustainable development but are increasingly at risk of climate change impacts, ranging from heat waves to heavy precipitation, flash floods, extreme winds and waves, for example long waves and associated swell, that endanger the operation of cranes and can render access to ports more hazardous (Becker et al., 2013). Mean sea-level rise and associated extreme sea-levels are especially concerning (Izaguirre et al., 2021) due to their potentially devastating impacts on port infrastructure and operations (Economist Impact, 2023).

Port defences are designed to withstand ESLs with a certain return period, commonly the 1-in-100 years ESL (ESL100), estimated at the time of design or construction. ESLs of a magnitude so far expected to occur once a century, will occur much more often under climate change, significantly increasing the flood hazard for global ports, including some of the 100 largest container ports (figure 4, see also UNDRR (2023)). Ports in developing regions, notably in SIDS, are particularly vulnerable and lack adaptive capacity (UNCTAD, 2021d, 2025b), although these regions rely on critical coastal transport infrastructure as lifelines for their external trade, food and energy security, tourism, as well as for disaster response and recovery (UNCTAD, 2019, 2020a). Effective adaptation action is particularly urgent as these assets are projected to be at high and increasing risk of coastal flooding, from as early as the 2030s (Monioudi et al., 2018; IPCC, 2022; Vousdoukas et al., 2018). Extreme weather events which are projected to increase in frequency or severity under global warming (IPCC, 2023) not only cause significant damage but also disrupt global supply chains, leading to extensive economic costs and losses (UNCTAD, 2020a; Verschuur et al., 2023; RTI International and Environmental Defense Fund, 2022; UNCTAD, 2024), with important implications for the sustainable development prospects of the most vulnerable nations (Vousdoukas et al., 2018; UNECE, 2020; UNCTAD, 2019; Asariotis, 2020; Becker et al., 2013). Knowledge gaps persist, however, regarding individual coastal transport facilities’ vulnerabilities and exposure, hampering effective prevention and underlining the need for further research, guidance and capacity-building (Asariotis et al., 2017; PIANC, 2024).

Figure 4. With global temperatures rising, ports will more frequently be exposed to extreme sea-levels of a magnitude previously expected to occur once a century Figure 4. With global temperatures rising, ports will more frequently be exposed to extreme sea-levels of a magnitude previously expected to occur once a century
Projected return period, Tr (years), of the baseline 1-in-100 years extreme sea level for top global container ports in 2021 under different global warming scenarios

Source: UNCTAD calculations. Data collation and treatment by I Monioudi, University of the Aegean. ESL100 projections for global coastline from European Commission (2024); see also Vousdoukas et al. (2018).

Notes: Global warming scenarios SWL are presented in degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. The Tr (years) - return period scale shows how frequent the baseline (mean of the 1980–2014 period) 1-in-100 years extreme sea level, ESL100, is projected to become for each port. Lower values indicate that the baseline ESL100 is projected to occur more frequently. Ports displayed are the 100 biggest ports in terms of container port throughput in 2021 (Lloyd’s List, 2022). The ports are ordered according to region and exposure in the SWL 1.5°C scenario. The size of the circles is proportional to container port throughput in volume, in 2021.

Scaling up EWS early warning systems (WMO, 2022), as discussed in Resilience and risk, will be critical for increased preparedness and mitigation of impacts. Flexible and adaptive infrastructure and operations as well as engineered redundancy are crucial to improve resilience (PIANC, 2025, 2024) and to minimize and address loss and damage in coastal zones (UNFCCC, 2020). While progress has been made in technical guidance (PIANC, 2020, 2025), standards (ISO, 2019, 2021) and methodologies (UNCTAD, 2018b; ECCLIPSE, 2021; Fernandez-Perez et al., 2024; UNCTAD, 2020b) to facilitate risk assessment and adaptation, policy and legal frameworks play a particularly critical role in supporting the implementation of effective measure on the ground (Asariotis et al., 2024). Climate-risk assessment in line with technical guidance (European Commission, 2021) is already a legal requirement for infrastructure projects in the EU and EU-funded projects in third countries (European Union, 2014). Urgent steps are required to bolster affordable climate adaptation finance for ports in developing countries (UNCTAD, 2022b). The World Bank estimates that net benefits from investing in resilient infrastructure in developing economies amount up to $4.2 trillion. This is equivalent to a $4 return on each dollar invested in resilience (Hallegatte et al., 2019). Out of the $116 billion of total climate finance provided and mobilized for developing economies in 2022, only $32.4 billion was for adaptation, and only a fraction of this amount will have been targeting climate change adaptation for ports and other critical coastal infrastructure.

Notes

  1. For more analysis of structural and cyclical changes affecting seaborne trade, ports and shipping see the annual UNCTAD flagship report Review of Maritime Transport (UNCTAD, 2024).

References