Multilateralism – UNCTAD SDG Pulse 2025

Multilateralism and trade

sonia — Wed, 21 Jun 2023 15:41:39 +0000

As the world navigates multiple, overlapping crises - from wars and climate disruptions to energy insecurity and fragile supply chains - trade remains a powerful enabler of sustainable development. Developing economies have demonstrated resilience, maintaining a stable two fifths share of global exports in goods and services. Yet this overall strength conceals persistent disparities. LDCs remain far from achieving SDG target 17.11, constrained by structural challenges that limit their integration into global markets. Services trade offers promising new pathways, particularly in digital and knowledge-intensive sectors. But its benefits are unequally shared: over half of all services exports from developing economies are generated by just five economies. Meanwhile, tariff escalation in high-value sectors, such as green technologies, continues to disadvantage countries seeking to diversify and move up the value chain.

These patterns highlight the need for a more inclusive and development-focused global trading system. Trade should be a force for shared prosperity, not geopolitical rivalry, as argued in the UNCTAD SG’s report ahead of UNCTAD 16 -—
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—-. Ensuring fairer rules, broader participation and stronger international cooperation will be essential to expand opportunities and make trade work for all, especially for countries still striving to overcome structural barriers and fully participate in the global economy. These goals were stated in the UNCTAD Bridgetown Covenant -—
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—- and remain relevant today; the following sections describe related challenges:

Multilateralism is the means to make all voices heard in a multipolar world.Read more on this in UNCTAD SG’s report ahead of 16^th session of the Conference.

Global exports of goods and services remain highly concentrated among a few developing economies.

LDCs’ share in global services exports dropped from the 15-year peak 0.7% in 2019 to 0.5% in 2024.

Tariffs on raw critical minerals are lower than on electric vehicles using them.

References

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Attaining the sustainable development goals through trade

sonia — Mon, 25 Feb 2019 09:22:50 +0000

SDG indicators

Goal 17: Partnerships for the goals

Target 17.11: Significantly increase the exports of developing countries, in particular with a view to doubling the least developed countries’ share of global exports by 2020.
Indicator 17.11.1: Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports (Tier I)

Since 2020, the world has faced many crises, including climate change, the war in Ukraine, the ongoing war in Gaza, other geopolitical tensions, and food and energy insecurity, that disrupt trade flows and threaten progress towards the SDGs. The growth of global merchandise trade is slowing, and geopolitical fragmentation hampers industrialization efforts of developing economies.

In the report to the Sixteenth Conference of UNCTAD, Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD underscored the role of trade as a critical engine for economic transformation, particularly for developing economies striving for inclusive growth and resilience -—
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—-. Strengthening productive capacities through trade is key to reducing vulnerability and enabling structural transformation.

Developing economies maintain a strong global export presence; LDCs still fall short of global export target

In 2024, developing economies accounted for 41% of global exports, up slightly from 40% in 2012. This stability underscores their enduring role in global trade, even amid shifting economic and geopolitical conditions.

SDG target 17.11 calls for a significant increase in developing countries’ exports, with a specific aim to double the share of LDCs in global exports from 1% in 2011 to 2% by 2020, a goal reaffirmed in the Istanbul -—
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—- and Doha -—
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—- Programmes of Action. Yet more than a decade later, progress has fallen short. In 2024, LDCs accounted for just 1.03% of global exports, up only marginally from 0.96% in 2012. These figures highlight the persistent structural barriers — limited diversification, weak infrastructure and small productive bases — that continue to constrain export growth in LDCs.

By contrast, SIDS increased their combined share of global exports of goods and services from 3.0% in 2012 to 3.4% in 2024, driven by gains in tourism, digital services, and creative sectors. While their overall share remains modest, this upward trend suggests the growing potential of services-led development pathways in vulnerable economies.

Figure 1. LDCs are not on track to reach SDG Target 17.11 to significantly increase their share in global exports

Percentage of global exports (SDG 17.11.1)

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Note: Data on trade in services for the latest year are preliminary annual estimates based on the most recent quarterly figures (BPM6). Data on trade in goods for the latest year are estimates based on Comtrade, international and national sources.

Only a few developing economies reach a notable share of global exports of goods and services.

Between 2014 and 2024, only a limited number of developing economies achieved notable gains in their share of global exports of goods and services. Djibouti recorded an eightfold increase, while Guinea’s share rose sixfold. Armenia and Sao Tome and Principe quadrupled their global export shares, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Viet Nam, and Cambodia tripled their export shares, and economies such as Niue, Mongolia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan doubled theirs. China also expanded its share by 32%, reaching 12% in 2024 from 9% in 2011. In contrast, several developing economies, including Yemen, Lebanon, Guyana, Kiribati, Sudan, Suriname and Angola, experienced a decline in their global export shares over the same period.

Map 1. Only a limited number of developing economies reach a notable share of global exports of goods and services

Percentage (SDG 17.11.1)

Source: UNCTADstat -—
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No additional trade decoupling

U.S. - China trade ties showed no further decoupling in 2024.

In 2024, trade interdependence between the United States and China remained unchanged from 2023, with no further shifts in bilateral trade shares. The trend of geopolitical realignment, or friend-shoring, continued, but without additional decoupling. Between 2017 and 2024, the United States’ share of Chinese exports declined by more than 4 percentage points, largely due to the tariff escalations of 2018 and 2019. Similarly, China’s share of the United States’ imports contracted by 8 percentage points over the same period.

Figure 2. Bilateral trade dependence between China and the United States has stalled

Import and export dependence, percentage

Source: UNCTADstat -—
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Note: Year 2024 figures are provisional, based on national statistics. China export dependence on the United States is calculated as China exports to the United States over total China exports. The United States import dependence on China is calculated as United States imports from China over total United States imports. The overall trade interdependence is calculated as bilateral trade (imports + exports) of United States and China over the sum of total trade of the two economies.

References

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Most developing economies lost market share in services exports over the last decade; only a few leading exporters thrive

sonia — Sun, 24 Feb 2019 12:58:06 +0000

SDG indicators

Goal 17: Partnerships for the goals

Target 17.11: Significantly increase the exports of developing countries, in particular with a view to doubling the least developed countries’ share of global exports by 2030.
Indicator 17.11.1: Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports (Tier I)

Reaching $8.8 trillion in 2024, services represented 27% of global international trade and grew by 9% from the previous year. Developing economies exported some $2.6 trillion worth of services, accounting for 30% of world exports and marking a 10% annual increase. As a group, developing economies are moving towards the SDG goal of capturing a higher market share. However, removing their five leading exporters paints a gloomier picture for the group. Many developing economies have lost market share over the last decade.

Figure 1. Developing economies’ share in world services exports have become ever more concentrated in a few leading exporters

Percentage, countries grouped by rank in cumulative exports value 2022-2024 (SDG 17.11.1)

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—- (based on UNCTAD-WTO trade-in-services data set).

Note: 2024 figures are preliminary.

Five leading exporters apart, the remaining developing economies captured only 13% of the global services market in 2024.

Knowledge-intensive services – such as financial, telecommunications, computer, professional, technical, audio-visual, or intellectual property related services – were boosted during the COVID-19 pandemic and with the rapid advancement of information technology and AI use. These categories witnessed a faster expansion than transport or travel, which were still recovering from the pandemic slowdown. Many developing economies, particularly among SIDS and LDCs, rely more on international travel and transport in their services exports.

LDCs’ share in global services exports dropped from the 15-year peak 0.7% in 2019 to 0.5% in 2024.

LDCs achieved a very solid 9% growth in services exports in 2024. Yet they are still falling short of the SDG target 17.11 to double their exports market share (figure 2). Their share dropped from 0.7% in 2019 to an estimated 0.5% in 2024. Although LDCs’ exports of transport and travel services recovered after 2021, their participation remained low in the trade of knowledge-intensive services. Most of those services are digitally traded and it has been an important growth sector in recent years.

Figure 2. Less competitive in knowledge-intensive services trade, LDCs lost services market share since the COVID-19 pandemic

Total services exports of LDCs (billions of dollars) and LDCs' market share (percentage)

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—- (based on UNCTAD-WTO trade-in-services data set).

Note: 2024 figures are preliminary.

For developing economies, the concentration of services exports with the leading exporters has accentuated.

The five leading services exporters among developing economies account for a compelling 56% of total services exports of the group. The five economies – China, India, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, and Türkiye - jointly outweigh the rest of developing economies in the exports of transport, goods related services, and other services^*. Only in travel do the remaining economies hold a larger market share, that is 66% of total travel exports of developing economies. The concentration of exports with the leading exporters has accentuated in recent years. For example, in 2010, the same five leaders exported an already high 46% of developing economies' other services sold abroad. The latest estimates for 2024 point to 65 %. (Other services are defined under figure 3).

Figure 3. Five leading services exporters among developing economies accounted for more than half of the group’s exports in 2024

Services exports of developing economies by broad service categories (billions of dollars)

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—- (based on UNCTAD-WTO trade-in-services data set).

Note: 2024 figures are preliminary.
Other services comprise construction, financial, insurance, telecommunication, computer, information and other business services, IP-related charges, and personal, cultural and recreational services. Most of these services are characterized by higher knowledge-intensive input and can be digitally traded.

References

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The multilateral trading system has reduced tariffs but not tariff escalation

sonia — Sat, 23 Feb 2019 16:49:20 +0000

SDG indicators

Goal 10: Reduced inequalities

Target 10.a: Implement the principle of special and differential treatment for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, in accordance with World Trade Organization agreements
Indicator 10.a.1: Proportion of tariff lines applied to imports from LDCs and developing countries with zero-tariff

Goal 17: Partnerships for the goals

Target 17.10: Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization, including through the conclusion of negotiations under its Doha Development Agenda.
Indicator 17.10.1: Worldwide weighted tariff-average (Tier I)

Target 17.12: Realize timely implementation of duty-free and quota-free market access on a lasting basis for all least developed countries, consistent with World Trade Organization decisions, including by ensuring that preferential rules of origin applicable to imports from least developed countries are transparent and simple, and contribute to facilitating market access.
Indicator 17.12.1: Tariffs faced by developing countries, LDCs and SIDS

Trade multilateralism plays a crucial role in fostering global economic stability, promoting inclusive growth, and ensuring a predictable trading environment. The WTO has been undergoing reform discussions to address challenges such as dispute settlement inefficiencies, special and differential treatment for developing countries, and the need for updated trade rules in areas like digital trade and sustainability. Strengthening multilateral cooperation remains essential to counter protectionism and to support a fair, rules-based global trading system. The report to the Sixteenth Conference of UNCTAD, emphasizes the need for enhanced multilateralism and a stronger UNCTAD role in global consensus-building, including UN-wide initiatives, regional and multinational organizations, and South-South cooperation frameworks, such as GSTP, AfCFTA, the G20 and ASEAN -—
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Two-thirds of world trade is tariff-free, but significant duties remain in agriculture and industry

International trade is mostly tariff-free, but remaining tariffs are high.

International trade is largely liberalized, in 2023 about two-thirds being tariff-free due to zero MFN tariffs and preferential access. However, tariffs on the remaining trade can be high. Agricultural products are mainly tariff-free largely due to preferential access and reciprocal concession, as opposed to zero MFN tariffs. Approximately 30% of agricultural trade outside of MFN and preferential regimes tends to face fairly high tariffs with remaining tariffs averaging nearly 20% (figure 1). In manufacturing, preferential access is also significant, as the remaining trade weighted tariffs amount to 8%. In contrast, preferential access is of limited importance to trade in natural resources, as trade in this category is largely tariff-free under MFN rates, with remaining trade-weighted tariffs of about 3%.

Figure 1. In 2023, about two-thirds of international trade are free of tariffs

Percentage (SDG 17.10.1)

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Rising tariffs in green sectors make it harder for countries to move up the value chain

In sectors, such as renewable energy and electric mobility, tariff structures affecting critical minerals play a crucial role in shaping supply chain dynamics, investment flows, and the competitiveness of developing economies in global markets.

Tariffs on raw critical minerals are lower than on electric vehicles using them.

MFN simple average tariffs on key minerals essential for the energy transition - such as cobalt, graphite and lithium - differ across various stages of the value chain, with processed products facing higher tariff rates than raw materials (table 1). Across all economic groupings, tariffs imposed on the initial three stages of production are roughly half of those applied to battery packs and only a third of the tariffs levied on electric vehicles. LDCs maintain the highest tariff levels at every stage of the value chain - except at the highest value-added stage 5 - primarily due to their reliance on tariffs as a key source of public revenue and as a policy tool to support early-stage industrial development. In contrast, developed economies apply the lowest tariffs, reflecting their broader fiscal capacity and the competitiveness of their more advanced industrial sectors. -—
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Table 1. MFN applied simple average tariffs in trade of raw critical minerals are lower than those in electric vehicles that utilize these minerals

Percentage (SDG 17.10.1)

Group of economies	Stage 1: Raw minerals	Stage 2: Processed minerals	Stage 3: Battery materials	Stage 4: Battery packs	Stage 5: Electric vehicles
Developed economies	1.0	1.9	2.3	3.6	4.6
Developing economies excluding LDCs	3.9	3.8	4.4	9.4	17.0
Least Developed Countries (LDCs)	6.6	6.0	6.8	14.1	16.5
All economies	4.2	4.1	4.7	9.8	15.0

Source: WTO, ITC, UNCTAD, -—
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Note: Simple average of the three latest available years, except for Switzerland, for which the reference year is 2024.

Recent developments in tariff wars have cast uncertainty over the future of multilateralism. In early April 2025, the United States imposed a baseline 10% tariff on almost all imports to the country and sharply raised duties on certain Chinese products to rates exceeding 100%. These new measures build on earlier protectionist policies, which were intensified during the United States–China trade tensions of 2018–2019 and further reinforced amid the global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tariff escalation underscores a shift towards a more fragmented global trading environment, thereby reinforcing the urgent need to strengthen multilateral efforts to safeguard open trade flows.

References

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Donec tincidunt vel mauris a dignissim. Curabitur sodales nunc id vestibulum tempor. Nunc tortor orci, sodales nec eros eget.